News of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is obviously very sad for her family, party and Pakistan. The country seems destined for yet more political turmoil. The response from Washington will, I suspect, be crucial.
Whilst not wishing to attribute blame for this murder, it has to be said that the US’s policy of overtly pushing forward a Bhutto-Musharraf deal probably didn’t help. No country wants its leaders to be seen as puppets of a foreign power. Even in Britain, Tony Blair’s reputation was tarnished, across the political spectrum, be being seen as the US President’s "poodle". The US need to ensure that they are not seen to be interfering in another country’s democratic processes by backing one candidate/party over another. The choice of government is a decision for the Pakistani people to make.
If this cloud has a silver lining it must be that Bhutto, in death, seems to have unified many of the political forces in the country in a way that she never could have done alive. She was a divisive, as well as somewhat ineffectual Prime Minister in-office (on both occasions). She certainly never dominated Pakistani politics in the same way as the other two-time former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif. It is inconceivable she could have united the country. The "deal" with Musharraf would have left Pakistan with a fundamental instability at the core of it’s leadership. Incidentally it’s also a good thing that that deal to legitimise a dictator’s rule is now off the table.
With sufficient time to reflect Pakistan might actually have a chance to form a national consensus and for unifying leaders to emerge. The politicians, however, will have to rise to the challenge. I would have thought Nawaz Sharif, for all his faults, would be the only one up to the task but he seems to have made a complete fool of himself: the PML-N have made so many u-turns about whether or not they are boycotting elections that I’ve actually lost count. Sadly there doesn’t seem to be anyone else (from my long distance view) on the Pakistani political scene with anything like the populist touch or the political stature to be able to up to the job.
The crucial thing is that the transition to democracy will have to be a slow, organic process led by the people themselves. Outside interference (including the propping up of an unaccountable dictator) will serve only to throw further obstacles in the way.
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